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Maybe that's completely unrealistic, though, just as no computer programs will probably ever be able to predict cloud formation, there are just too many variables.
Some people were so optimistic that they thought it would be possible to hear original performances by Mozart by retracing the vibrations of the air molecules produced by the instruments back to the 18th Century: A real fair match should be something like games on supercomputer, and games on PC.
I am very sure SF can beat AZ easily in any real fair matchs. Also, I believe most people would like to use chess engines on their PC instead of supercomputer.
Developing and running chess engines on supercomputer aren't very useful. Increasing the training time may not improve the neural network.
As shown in figure 1 of the paper, after K training steps, further training may not be very helpful, sometimes very often even harmful.
What will AZ tell us in the future if it learns and masters other disciplines? Human sexuality, the true story of jesus, its opinion on abortion, origins of the universe, etc.
When asked about religion, what if it insults Christianity or othere faiths? Many authorities will want it banned, even destroyed.
It can be a dangerous device. I say continue the research, let it show us its max potential. The same they said of the internet, that it could destroy the world.
It changed the world for sure it occupies a dominant place in modern society but hasn't destroyed it. Maybe in the future some highly advanced self-taught version of it will though.
It's dubious whether anything self-taught based on self-consistent principles could ever become controversial because it can never encounter any outside influences, but if it contains contradictory principles to begin with then it could become "heretical".
For example in medieval Scholasticism, the professors at the University of Paris tried to reconcile Aristotle with the Gospels and the brightest professors who picked up on all the contradictions, like Pierre Abelard, were criticized as heretical for "trying to look God in the face".
I've read comments that members aren't able to replicate the mistakes by Stockfish on their own systems. A theory of conditions.
There could be an application which plays perfect chess. Let's imagine there is such program. There are 20 moves, so there are 20 best variations.
Another theory; since we do not have such program, it could be there is a program, at some point, but how do we know it found the best moves?
It could be that some point the best variations are played and the engine will recognize them as such. Which in practice means it eventually 'stumbles upon' the best variations.
However, it could be also the case that a program gets eventually an update and will predict the best variation from the start position and recognize it as such.
I wonder why they didn't release any of the draws? Surely some of those were interesting. Multi-core chess engines are notoriously non-deterministic.
If you run successive analyses of the same position using the same chess engine on the same computer system to the same search depth, you will get different results.
The reason seems to be that since practically every engine except AlphaZero uses alpha-beta pruning to increase their efficiency in transversing the search tree, and since the efficiency of alpha-beta pruning is highly dependent on move ordering, different move orders will give different results.
The different move orderings are in turn the consequence of the various chess engine threads or processes being interrupted in a non-deterministic way by various operating system processes.
So goes the theory. I tested it almost a year ago by analyzing the following position from W So vs Onischuk, after In summary, I several analyses of the same position with Houdini 4, Komodo 10, and Stockfish using 1, 2, 3, and 4 threads.
The results were consistent; using only 1 thread all 3 engines were deterministic, giving the same result per engine for each of the analyses.
But with 2, 3, or 4 threads the results were non-deterministic; each analysis resulted in different evaluation and, on occasion, different move rankings.
Granted, it was only one position on one game with a limited 3 analyses by each engine using 1, 2, 3, and 4 threads. So, if it's not possible to get the same results using 2, 3, or 4 threads, image the small probability of getting the same results using 64 threads as Stockfish used in the AlphaZero exhibition.
I think it is pointless to keep discussing about this "private" match. A fair match needs to take place in order to conclude that AlphaZero is clearly stronger than Stockfish.
Both engines have to run on equivalent hardware. It is true that AlphaZero played some amazing games. But if you look at TCEC you can also find many amazing games.
Given that different top engines give different evaluations and move rankings, and that any multi-core engine will give different evaluations and move rankings of the same position when they conduct analyses at different time, how does anyone know what the "best move" really is?
So clearly they were most interested in showing AlphaZero in the best possible light. It's not that different than a grandmaster writing a book about his best games; you are not likely to find many, if any, of his loses there.
And, for that matter, only 10 of AlphaZero's games were released, even though AlphaZero had 28 wins. Presumably the other 18 wins did not show AlphaZero at its best.
So, given that more than half of AlphaZero's wins did not show it to its best advantage, it's probably safe to assume that the games in which it failed to win did not do that either.
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